Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) shares closed at $107.24 on Thursday, up approximately 4.7% from the prior Friday, as the company prepares to join the Nasdaq-100 index on Monday before the market opens. The stock slipped 0.69% during Thursday's session and fell further to $106.20 in after-hours trading, with U.S. markets closed Friday for Juneteenth.
Index Inclusion Drives Demand
The addition to the Nasdaq-100, which tracks the largest non-financial companies on the Nasdaq exchange, will take effect on June 22. This move is expected to trigger forced buying from index funds and exchange-traded funds that track the benchmark, potentially providing a tailwind for the stock. Rocket Lab is one of five companies joining the index, along with Astera Labs, CoreWeave, Nebius, and Teradyne. Charter Communications, Cognizant, Insmed, Verisk, and Zscaler are being removed.
Rocket Lab CEO Sir Peter Beck called the inclusion "a landmark moment," noting it reflects the company's evolution "from a small company with big ambitions to a global space leader." The firm has completed over 80 launches and deployed more than 250 satellites, and is developing its medium-class Neutron rocket for constellation missions.
Volatile Trading Week
The stock experienced sharp swings during the holiday-shortened week. After dropping 10.8% on the prior Friday, shares rebounded 6.7% on Monday, then fell 4.2% on Tuesday, rose 3.2% on Wednesday, and eased 0.7% on Thursday. Trading volume surged to about 70.3 million shares on Thursday, more than double the average daily volume of the previous three sessions, as traders repositioned ahead of the long weekend and the index change.
Wall Street Upgrades
Analysts have been active on the stock. KeyBanc analyst Michael Leshock upgraded Rocket Lab to Overweight, arguing that the recent selloff tied to SpaceX's Nasdaq debut was "unwarranted," according to MarketWatch. Firefly Aerospace also received an upgrade, as analysts reassess the space sector following SpaceX's public listing. However, SpaceX shares dropped over 6% on Thursday as post-IPO momentum faded, dragging down Rocket Lab and Planet Labs as well. Kat Liu, analyst at IPOX Schuster, noted that "some degree of profit-taking is not surprising" given the size and rapid start of the offering.
Insider Activity
Insider filings revealed that Rocket Lab Senior Vice President and General Counsel Arjun Kampani sold 88,000 shares at $107.98 each on June 18, moving them into an exchange fund to diversify his holdings. After the transaction, Kampani still held 264,705 shares directly, according to a Form 4 filed with the SEC.
Financial Backdrop
The company's fundamentals support the bullish narrative. Rocket Lab reported first-quarter revenue exceeding $200 million, with a backlog of $2.2 billion in contracted work not yet recognized as revenue. The firm also has access to over $2 billion in liquidity, providing a strong financial cushion.
Risks Remain
Despite the positive catalysts, risks persist. If the expected index buying is already priced into the stock, the actual inclusion could trigger a sell-the-news reaction. Rocket Lab remains a high-expectation space trade, vulnerable to delays in the Neutron rocket program, softer launch demand, contract timing issues, insider selling headlines, or renewed weakness from SpaceX. The new week begins with forced buying as the dominant narrative, but execution will need to sustain momentum thereafter.
