SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI) closed Wednesday's session up 8.14% at $16.47, buoyed by a cooler-than-expected July inflation report that eased market concerns about an imminent Federal Reserve rate increase. Trading volume reached approximately 78.3 million shares, in line with the stock's average daily turnover.
The consumer price index rose just 0.1% month-over-month in July, while the annual rate came in at 3.4%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, posted a 0.2% monthly gain and a 2.5% year-over-year increase. Following the data, traders trimmed the probability of a September rate hike to 38%, down from 48.4% a day earlier.
"While not conclusive, this report should further ease the Fed's worries about an energy-driven inflation surge," said Scott Anderson, chief U.S. economist at BMO Capital Markets. He cautioned that services-sector inflation still needs to slow further.
The rate-sensitive financial sector benefited broadly, but SoFi outperformed the Nasdaq Composite by 7.6 percentage points. The S&P 500 gained 0.26%, while the Nasdaq rose 0.54%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.04%.
SoFi's management used the favorable backdrop to raise its 2026 adjusted revenue guidance to a range of $4.75 billion to $4.85 billion, up from a previous midpoint of around $4.7 billion. However, the company maintained its adjusted EBITDA outlook of approximately $1.6 billion, signaling that the additional revenue may not translate into higher near-term profitability.
In the second quarter, SoFi reported adjusted net revenue of $1.206 billion, up 40% year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA of $357.8 million, a 44% increase. Total loan originations surged 69% to $14.8 billion, with personal loans accounting for $10.7 billion. Student loan originations jumped 170% to $2.7 billion.
Membership growth remained robust, with 15.8 million members, up 35% from a year ago. Product count rose 42% to 24.4 million. Cross-selling momentum continued, as existing members accounted for 51% of new product openings, compared with 35% in the prior year. CEO Anthony Noto said SoFi was "starting to hit escape velocity" in digital finance.
Despite the strong top-line performance, some margin pressures persist. The financial services segment's contribution margin fell six points to 46%, while sales and marketing expenses climbed 48% to $392.4 million, representing roughly 32% of adjusted revenue. The technology platform segment saw revenue decline 23% to $84.5 million following the loss of a major client, and its contribution margin narrowed to 14% from 30%.
Wall Street remains divided on SoFi. Among 21 analysts, 7 rate it a Buy, 11 have a Hold, and 3 recommend Sell. The consensus price target is $22.83, implying about 38.6% upside from Wednesday's close, though the lowest target of $16.00 sits just below the current price. The stock trades at approximately 27.5 times projected 2026 adjusted earnings of $0.60 per share.
Investors will be watching whether SoFi can convert its revenue growth into improved operating leverage. The company's decision to hold EBITDA guidance despite a higher revenue outlook suggests management is prioritizing investment. Risks include a resurgence in inflation that could reignite rate-hike expectations, as well as potential credit losses, elevated marketing costs, or a slower-than-expected recovery in the technology platform segment.
