Economy News

Economic news covering Fed interest rate decisions, inflation data, jobs reports, GDP growth, and macroeconomic trends affecting the stock market.

Indonesia's New Finance Minister Faces 2.4% Deficit Test
Economy Daniel Marsh

Indonesia's New Finance Minister Faces 2.4% Deficit Test

Indonesia appoints Suahasil Nazara as finance minister. Markets now test his commitment to the 2.4% GDP deficit target amid currency weakness.

SPY
Social Security COLA 2027 Estimate Dips to 3.4% After August CPI
Economy Daniel Marsh

Social Security COLA 2027 Estimate Dips to 3.4% After August CPI

Based on the latest CPI-W data, the 2027 Social Security COLA is estimated at 3.4%. The final figure depends on September inflation numbers due in October.

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Core Inflation Surprises Hot; September Fed Hike Odds Jump to 90%
Economy Daniel Marsh

Core Inflation Surprises Hot; September Fed Hike Odds Jump to 90%

August core CPI rose 0.3% m/m, above the 0.2% expected, lifting September Fed hike odds to 90%. Annual core eased to 2.4%.

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UK GDP Surprise Lifts FTSE 100, But Tech-Dependent Growth Raises Doubts
Economy Daniel Marsh

UK GDP Surprise Lifts FTSE 100, But Tech-Dependent Growth Raises Doubts

UK GDP grew 0.4% in July, beating expectations, but the rise was powered by tech services, while consumer spending slumped. The FTSE 100's rally may not reflect broad economic health ahead of the Bank of England's rate decision.

EWU
BoE Set to Hold Rates Despite Strong GDP Surprise
Economy Daniel Marsh

BoE Set to Hold Rates Despite Strong GDP Surprise

The Bank of England is widely expected to hold rates at 3.75% on Sept 17, but a strong GDP report and hawkish risks keep markets on edge.

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Core CPI at 0.2%: The Pivotal Number for Fed's Next Move
Economy Daniel Marsh

Core CPI at 0.2%: The Pivotal Number for Fed's Next Move

Friday's CPI report could sway the Fed's rate decision. A core reading of 0.2% or lower may hold rates, while 0.3% could trigger a hike.

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ECB Set to Hike to 2.5%: Euro's Fate Hinges on Inflation Forecasts
Economy Daniel Marsh

ECB Set to Hike to 2.5%: Euro's Fate Hinges on Inflation Forecasts

The ECB's expected quarter-point hike to 2.50% may not move the euro. Investors await new inflation projections and Lagarde's guidance.

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BoE's Pill Advocates Rate Hike to 4% as Long-Term Gilt Yields Stay Elevated
Economy Daniel Marsh

BoE's Pill Advocates Rate Hike to 4% as Long-Term Gilt Yields Stay Elevated

Huw Pill argues for a quarter-point rate increase, but market pricing suggests September is unlikely. Long-dated gilt yields stay high, reflecting inflation and fiscal concerns.

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Turkish Diesel at 90 Lira, Tax Hikes Could Push It Past 100
Economy Daniel Marsh

Turkish Diesel at 90 Lira, Tax Hikes Could Push It Past 100

Turkish diesel prices have exceeded 90 lira per liter, and a scheduled tax increase could push them past 100 by January, adding to inflation pressures as the central bank considers rate cuts.

SPY
Mortgage Rates at 6.71%: The Real Cost of Crossing the 6% Threshold
Economy Daniel Marsh

Mortgage Rates at 6.71%: The Real Cost of Crossing the 6% Threshold

Freddie Mac's 30-year mortgage rate rose to 6.71%, adding $1,933 a year to the median homebuyer's payment. Housing demand stays stable but faces headwinds.

SPY
Canada's August Jobs Miss Widens Gap With US Hiring
Economy Daniel Marsh

Canada's August Jobs Miss Widens Gap With US Hiring

Canada's August employment fell by 41,700, far worse than expected, while US hiring remained robust, widening the economic gap and pressuring the loonie.

SPY
Tech Futures Lead Modest Gains Ahead of Key Jobs Report
Economy Daniel Marsh

Tech Futures Lead Modest Gains Ahead of Key Jobs Report

Nasdaq-100 futures rose 0.38% early Friday, leading modest gains as investors await the August jobs report, which could test the recent rate-relief rally.

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