Economy News

Economic news covering Fed interest rate decisions, inflation data, jobs reports, GDP growth, and macroeconomic trends affecting the stock market.

Retail Sales Data and Fed Decision Collide on Wednesday
Economy Daniel Marsh

Retail Sales Data and Fed Decision Collide on Wednesday

August retail sales data and the Fed's rate decision land on the same day, creating a high-stakes session for markets.

SPY
UK Mortgage Rates Jump to 5.14% as BOE Decision Looms
Economy Daniel Marsh

UK Mortgage Rates Jump to 5.14% as BOE Decision Looms

Average fixed mortgage rates for UK buyers with 5% deposits climbed to 5.14% on September 12, adding pressure on borrowers before the Bank of England's policy decision on Thursday.

BRK-B BAC JPM HSBC LYG
Social Security 2027 COLA Estimate Climbs to 3.5% Ahead of Final Inflation Report
Economy Daniel Marsh

Social Security 2027 COLA Estimate Climbs to 3.5% Ahead of Final Inflation Report

The 2027 Social Security COLA is now projected at 3.5% to 3.6%, pending September inflation data due Oct 14. A 3.5% raise would add about $72 monthly to average benefits.

SPY
UK Rents Projected to Surge 5% by Year-End as Landlord Exodus Deepens
Economy Daniel Marsh

UK Rents Projected to Surge 5% by Year-End as Landlord Exodus Deepens

Zoopla now expects UK rent growth to hit 4-5% by December, up from its June forecast of 2-3%, as landlord supply tightens despite subdued demand.

BTI HSBC
Indonesia's New Finance Minister Faces 2.4% Deficit Test
Economy Daniel Marsh

Indonesia's New Finance Minister Faces 2.4% Deficit Test

Indonesia appoints Suahasil Nazara as finance minister. Markets now test his commitment to the 2.4% GDP deficit target amid currency weakness.

SPY
Social Security COLA 2027 Estimate Dips to 3.4% After August CPI
Economy Daniel Marsh

Social Security COLA 2027 Estimate Dips to 3.4% After August CPI

Based on the latest CPI-W data, the 2027 Social Security COLA is estimated at 3.4%. The final figure depends on September inflation numbers due in October.

GLD SLV USO UNG XLE
Core Inflation Surprises Hot; September Fed Hike Odds Jump to 90%
Economy Daniel Marsh

Core Inflation Surprises Hot; September Fed Hike Odds Jump to 90%

August core CPI rose 0.3% m/m, above the 0.2% expected, lifting September Fed hike odds to 90%. Annual core eased to 2.4%.

SPY QQQ USO GLD SLV
UK GDP Surprise Lifts FTSE 100, But Tech-Dependent Growth Raises Doubts
Economy Daniel Marsh

UK GDP Surprise Lifts FTSE 100, But Tech-Dependent Growth Raises Doubts

UK GDP grew 0.4% in July, beating expectations, but the rise was powered by tech services, while consumer spending slumped. The FTSE 100's rally may not reflect broad economic health ahead of the Bank of England's rate decision.

EWU
BoE Set to Hold Rates Despite Strong GDP Surprise
Economy Daniel Marsh

BoE Set to Hold Rates Despite Strong GDP Surprise

The Bank of England is widely expected to hold rates at 3.75% on Sept 17, but a strong GDP report and hawkish risks keep markets on edge.

EWU GLD TLT
Core CPI at 0.2%: The Pivotal Number for Fed's Next Move
Economy Daniel Marsh

Core CPI at 0.2%: The Pivotal Number for Fed's Next Move

Friday's CPI report could sway the Fed's rate decision. A core reading of 0.2% or lower may hold rates, while 0.3% could trigger a hike.

SPY QQQ GLD USO
ECB Set to Hike to 2.5%: Euro's Fate Hinges on Inflation Forecasts
Economy Daniel Marsh

ECB Set to Hike to 2.5%: Euro's Fate Hinges on Inflation Forecasts

The ECB's expected quarter-point hike to 2.50% may not move the euro. Investors await new inflation projections and Lagarde's guidance.

GLD USO
BoE's Pill Advocates Rate Hike to 4% as Long-Term Gilt Yields Stay Elevated
Economy Daniel Marsh

BoE's Pill Advocates Rate Hike to 4% as Long-Term Gilt Yields Stay Elevated

Huw Pill argues for a quarter-point rate increase, but market pricing suggests September is unlikely. Long-dated gilt yields stay high, reflecting inflation and fiscal concerns.

EWU GLD SLV USO UNG XLF XLE XLK