Tesla (TSLA) ended Friday at $391.00, down 6.56%, as a broad tech selloff and renewed interest rate fears outweighed a bullish analyst upgrade from JPMorgan. The stock touched an intraday low of $388.59 before closing, and in after-hours trading it edged up just 0.08% to $391.32. With U.S. markets closed for the weekend, Tesla investors now face a weekend of uncertainty.
JPMorgan raised its rating on Tesla to 'neutral' from 'underweight' and hiked its price target to $475 from $145, citing progress in autonomous driving, robotics, AI chips, and software. Analyst Rajat Gupta noted that Tesla's vertical integration remains 'still somewhat under-appreciated and misunderstood.' However, the upgrade failed to lift shares as the Nasdaq Composite plunged 4.18% and the S&P 500 lost 2.64% on Friday after a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report fueled expectations of higher interest rates. Higher rates typically pressure growth stocks by reducing the present value of future earnings.
JPMorgan projects Tesla's earnings per share could reach about $7.50 by 2030, up from approximately $1.95 in 2026, with revenue more than doubling to $203 billion by 2030 from about $95 billion in 2025. These long-term forecasts underscore the high-multiple bet on autonomy that Tesla represents, even as investors rotate away from expensive tech names.
Operationally, Tesla last week began rolling out unsupervised robotaxis in the Austin metro area, a key step in its pivot from pure EV sales to autonomous ride-hailing. However, according to a city presentation, Tesla has only about 50 vehicles in Austin, compared to Alphabet's Waymo, which operates more than 250. In China, Tesla sold 85,982 China-made vehicles in May, up 39.4% year-on-year, but it has not yet received regulatory approval for its top driver-assistance features, while local rivals like BYD accelerate upgrades.
European registrations provided a bright spot: Tesla saw a 655% jump in France in May (5,446 vehicles) and a 29% rise in Norway (3,345 vehicles). Julien Thomas of TP ICAP Midcap attributed the demand to the Model Y's price and range, which appeal to cost-sensitive buyers.
Looking ahead, the risks are substantial. JPMorgan flagged hurdles around regulatory approval, safety validation, and scaling new technologies. Continued rate worries, slower robotaxi adoption, or stronger competition from Waymo on autonomy and BYD on EVs could drag Tesla's valuation closer to its core auto business before any robotics revenue materializes.
Additionally, Elon Musk's SpaceX is aiming for a $75 billion IPO at a $1.75 trillion valuation on June 12. S&P Global has confirmed it will not loosen rules to fast-track SpaceX into the S&P 500. B. Riley Wealth strategist Art Hogan praised the decision for maintaining profitability requirements. This IPO could divert investor attention and capital from Tesla.
Friday's drop raises the question: was it just a breather after a record nine-week tech rally, or a sign of deeper pressure from rates, robotaxi doubts, and Musk's next listing? The coming session will provide the first clue.
