BHP Group (ASX: BHP) capped a remarkable results week with its market capitalization swelling by approximately A$19.4 billion, fueled by a surge in copper earnings that overshadowed its traditional iron ore business. The stock closed Friday at A$65.16, marking a 6.2% gain over the five-session period, though it slipped 0.9% on the final day as profit-taking emerged.
The rally, which saw BHP's shares climb from A$61.35 on August 14 to a peak of A$65.75 on Thursday, was driven by the company's fiscal 2026 results, which showed underlying attributable profit jumping 30% to US$13.20 billion, beating Visible Alpha consensus by 4.3%. Revenue rose 15% to US$58.76 billion, while underlying EBITDA increased 27% to US$32.95 billion. Net debt fell 33% to US$8.69 billion, its lowest level in years.
Copper emerged as the standout performer, contributing US$18.19 billion to underlying EBITDA—25% higher than the prior year and accounting for 54% of group EBITDA. This marked the first time copper surpassed iron ore as BHP's primary earnings driver, with iron ore contributing US$14.53 billion. Chief Executive Brandon Craig highlighted copper's pivotal role, stating, "Copper is the engine that is driving BHP's growth." The company projects copper production to increase by 40% by fiscal 2035, underpinned by expansions at Escondida and other assets.
Despite the strong results, BHP's shares now trade 8.9% above the average analyst price target of A$59.83, according to a 17-analyst consensus compiled by Investing.com. Of the recent ratings, only Morgan Stanley (Buy, target A$67.00) sees meaningful upside, while Macquarie (Neutral, A$58.50), Citi (Hold, A$63.00), and Bank of America (Hold, A$65.00) all suggest limited or negative returns. The stock closed just 1.2% below its 52-week high of A$65.98, narrowing the scope for an immediate rerating.
The market's rapid repricing has left analysts scrambling to catch up. The consensus recommendation stands at Neutral, with 4 buys, 12 holds, and 1 sell. "Analysts have lagged the market's repricing of BHP," noted one Sydney-based trader. "The question now is whether copper prices can sustain the momentum."
Looking ahead, BHP's fiscal 2027 guidance points to a potential 11.7% decline in copper production at the midpoint (1.650–1.800 Mt vs. 1.953 Mt in fiscal 2026), due to lower ore grades at Escondida. Iron ore production is expected to remain broadly flat, while BMA coal output is projected to rise 4.8% at the midpoint. Capital and exploration spending is set to increase to about US$11 billion, reflecting ongoing growth investments.
The company's cash returns provided a bright spot, with a final dividend of US$0.99 bringing the total annual payout to US$1.72 per share—the highest in four years. Net debt dropped below US$9 billion, giving BHP financial flexibility for future projects or shareholder returns.
Investors will now focus on the upcoming ex-dividend date of September 3, with the rand conversion scheduled for Friday. BHP's next operational review is due on October 20. Key risks include potential declines in copper prices, lower Escondida grades, higher project costs at Jansen or copper expansions, and reduced steel demand from China.
As markets reopen Monday, the key test will be whether buyers are willing to pay a premium above analyst targets, or if profit-taking continues. "The week's gain was notable, but the stock's valuation now leaves little room for error," said a portfolio manager. "Copper remains the swing factor."
